THE Democrats in Guam Legislature are not vulnerable and are expected to retain the majority since it has eight incumbents running versus only three incumbent Republicans.
œBy sheer numbers of incumbents alone, they are all doing well in the polls. And if one Democratic incumbent loses, there are at least two strong Democratic candidates who are pushing hard to get elected and its likely that one of them will win a seat, said Dr. Ron McNinch, professor of political science from the University of Guam.
It would be very hard for the Democrats to lose the majority said McNinch, although it could happen.
œIt could happen, but in order for that to happen, right now, there would have to be a very urgent issue to really make the public feel discontent with the legislature, he said.
Questioned what it would take to beat Democrat Congresswoman Madeleine Z. Bordallo?
McNinch said its not impossible, but it would be very hard for a first time candidate to run against Bordallo and win.
œIt would take a candidate to run and run and run again and build up their stature if they want to beat Madeleine, but first, someone has to run against her, he said.
The professor doesnt reckon Bordallo can be defeated anytime in the near future, but, the strategy to take would be for a moderate Republican to run, not a radical one.
œIn order for someone to beat Madeleine Bordallo, they would have to run. They would have to be normal, not a radical Republican; a normal Republican who is sincere and would not make mistakes that are very, very simple to make, said McNinch.
The professor stressed the importance of Bordallos opponent to make the mistake of not treating his opponent with respect because she is a female.
œHer opponent would have to run the race just right. Across the nation, male candidates all the time, not because of policy, not because of thoughts, when they run against a female, they do not treat their opponent appropriately and so they lose the election, said McNinch.
He said this is a very sensitive issue since œMadeleine isnt just an elected official. She is an icon.
œIn order for anyone to really run an effective campaign against her, they would have to try once, twice, three times, and do it right each time until they win, he added.
He also believes that such a person who could use this strategy and win against Bordallo would be former Gov. Joseph Ada.
œIf Joe Ada had ran against Madeleine again, and then again, and keep doing it right, he would eventually would have been able to make the ground and win.
McNinch said one of the ancient rules of politics is that there are no candidates that make everyone pleased over time.
œAt some point, you alienate somebody or some group of people. Any Republican candidate in this race who would have run against Madeleine could have gotten probably 43-44 percent in the race, said McNinch.
Pointing out, œthats not a terrible percentage, over two or three election cycles, they overcome the icon image and they get closer and closer to winning. And thats how you do it.
McNinch said he didnt believe that any of the current Republican politicians œhave the experience to take this approach, although I reckon Joe Ada could have done it.
When questioned what he thought about the possibility of Republican Senator Frank Blas Jr. and Democratic Speaker Judi Won Pat running against Bordallo in the next election, McNinch said, œIve heard that both of them will run. Anyone who says theyre running against Madeleine, Ill believe it when I see it.
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