GOSSIP among Guam residents will be a strong force in determining who will be the next governor for the next four years, according to a political analyst who has been conducting poll surveys since 1998.
œThis race is unlike any race Ive seen, said Dr. Ron McNinch, who is also a professor at the University of Guam.
McNinch gave a presentation on the role of the political season on Guam at yesterdays Rotary Club of Tumon Bay meeting at the Hilton Resort and Spa.
In a 100 point system, McNinch said both gubernatorial teams are currently sitting at 45 each, leaving 10 percent in the middle that often leaps back and forth in favor of either team.
Last week, McNinch said the GOP standard bearers Sens. Eddie B. Calvo and Ray Tenorio were three points ahead of their Democrat opponents former Gov. Carl Gutierrez and his running mate Sen. Frank Aguon, Jr.
But that lead quickly turned in favor of the Gutierrez-Aguon team the same week due to media coverage or political print ads.
McNinch said there are two cycles for measuring opinion on Guam: the Monday through Thursday and the Friday through Sunday cycle.
œBoth cycles are very different. Were wondering why in the world are peoples opinions different over the weekend from during the week, McNinch said. œAnd then it leads to all roads in Guam politics to people talking.
McNinch said the weekend leading to the Nov. 2 general elections, a Tuesday, will be very influential in determining the winners.
Friday, Oct. 29 is a GovGuam payday and McNinch said having money to spend during the weekend means elevated social activities in which œtalk will likely occur.
It also happens to be a Halloween weekend"another social activity for both parents who will take their children trick-or-treating and adults attending Halloween parties.
Then, theres All Souls Day on the day of the election.
Social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter can potentially have an influence in the elections; but, McNinch said it would only have an influence as a supplemental factor.
œNothing beats person-to-person communication on Guam, he said.
The effectiveness of œinitiator effects, like what happens when a person makes a topic of conversation on Facebook or Twitter, can depend on how well loved that person is, he added.
He also said political junk emails as a result of that can be annoying and could backfire on the candidates.
œBut to have pure electronic influence is still not that powerful at this point in Guams environment, he said.
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